How’s 2026 Shaping Up?

Good news for vacation rental owners: industry economists at AirDNA are calling 2026 “the best year to invest in short-term rentals since 2021.” After several years of rapid growth in the number of vacation rentals, the market is finally stabilizing. This means less competition from new listings and stronger pricing power for established properties like yours. We remain cautiously optimistic as local economies continue to face headwinds and growing international travel heads elsewhere. As  uncertainty continues to compress booking windows we are keeping a close eye on top of funnel earlier demand signals such as search data. Read the full 2026 report here. 

In the last week (Jan 27th – Feb 3rd) we continue to see very near term searches dominating with the compressed booking window. There are search spikes starting to build for spring break and July as well which is a positive sign for Spring and Summer dates.

Mt Hood

January had lighter occupancy due to much weaker snow this year. The mountain still does not have all lifts open with overnight temperatures hovering above freezing and a lack of snow. Ski Bowl announced this week they will be closing lifts after Sunday. We are doing our snow dance and keeping a close eye on forecasts. February and March pacing are lighter as well as the snowpack fails to improve. We are seeing some healthy bookings into summer though it is still off a low base this is a healthy sign. 

Red = This year market pacing

Dotted Grey = Last year market pacing as of today

Oregon Wine Country

It is a weaker Cellar season in Wine Country than prior years with January down in the market by -21% occupancy wise and February pacing lighter as well. Despite the weaker January we were even year over year on occupancy as we reacted quickly to a weak start to the year. Spring and early summer are pacing in line or ahead on event weekends as Oregon wines continue to draw out of state travelers. We are aiming to make up for a weaker winter with spring and summer travel but are keeping a close eye on pacing as Oregon wine sales continue to struggle year over year. 

Seaside & Oregon Coast

The coast is in its own version of cellar season as it is much quieter outside of convection center draws in Seaside. This is normal for winter on the coast when storm-watching guests are the main audience. The good news: the broader market is holding steady year-over-year, and our summer booking pace is already building. The Sand & Sea Condos are facing headwinds with construction disclosures and work resulting in 9% less occupancy in January. We are communicating with guests proactively to ensure everyone has a great time resulting in 3% higher reviews despite the construction and elevator work. 

Seaside Occupancy 

What This Means for You

Market stabilization is working in our favor. The flood of new vacation rentals that entered the market in 2021-2022 has slowed dramatically. Supply is now projected to grow just 4.6% nationally this year. Combined with resilient travel demand and cooling home prices, analysts see this as an excellent time to be a vacation rental owner.

Rates are holding strong despite softer occupancy. In two of our three markets, average daily rates are up year-over-year. We’re focused on pricing strategically rather than racing to the bottom—quality guests are still booking and paying fair prices for well-maintained properties. 

Summer bookings will accelerate soon. It’s early February and summer booking pace is just beginning. Our coastal properties already show 25% occupancy and higher for certain dates pacing ahead of last year. Wine Country and the Mountain will start to pick up as we get closer to spring. 

If you are interested in chatting about using this time to improve your property, want an analysis into reviews or more data and pretty charts were here to nerd out with you. 

For Mt Hood homeowners, pray for snow!

For our Wine Country homeowners, cellar season is a great time to make updates. We are aiming to reshoot properties in Spring so now is a great time to make any adjustments before then. 

For Sand & Sea homeowners, we are working closely with Sondra and the construction team to adapt holds as we get updates. Now is a great time to make updates to be ready when we can remove construction disclosures. We are happy to pull data or help get estimates on performance lifts for improvements.